Childcare in 2040
This year was a big year for the childcare sector, arguably the biggest year. Canada is now well on its way to having affordable childcare options for families, a privilege that was until recently reserved for Quebec families.
Given this significant development, layered on with a multitude of broader societal changes impacting families, what might the childcare sector look like in 10 - 15 years? We recently developed four scenarios exploring this question for one of our clients, and while we can’t share the specifics, there are a few key questions we’ve been left to ponder.
Will communities that are experiencing a sudden migration of young couples and families be able to meet childcare demand in time? Data shows that communities in Brant, Bruce, Dufferin, Elgin, Grey, Haldimand-Norfolk, Huron, Lambton, Middlesex, Oxford, Perth, Simcoe, Waterloo, and Wellington have experienced population growth of children under the age of five. A quick scan of Facebook parent groups can easily tell you many of these communities lack childcare infrastructure. Will these areas be targeted with new centres as part of the Canada-wide Early Learning and Child Care system? Will parents (likely mothers) be forced to juggle kids at home while working, despite promises of $10/day daycare? We certainly hope for a future where parents have access to childcare that meets their needs, so this isn’t a choice they have to make.
Conversely, will lasting pandemic anxiety push families to seek childcare options with fewer children, like home-based daycares, to limit illness exposure? Anyone who has a young one in daycare these past two years can attest to how disruptive it has been, never knowing if a runny nose and slight cough might mean cancelling all your meetings for the week. Not to mention all the parents who continue to carry high levels of anxiety about the health of their unvaccinated youngsters. Home-based care might seem desirable for many, yet most are unlicensed, meaning they won’t be eligible for the $10/day program.
Lastly, will parents still seek daycare options that are during traditional work hours? With more and more workers engaged in flex hours, or working remotely in different time zones, is there a future where parents need more flexible daycare options? In our current “on-demand” society, will future generations of parents expect “just in time” daycare options? Anyone with a young one understands the inherent challenges of this - children thrive in routines and predictability. But in a time where everything has become increasingly uncertain and disrupted, might there be a paradigm shift to “build resilience” by embracing ever-changing schedules? There are already some daycare providers offering flexible options (some with coworking spaces), but might this become more mainstream by 2040?
Sadly we do not have a crystal ball, and cannot predict the future of childcare. There isn’t one future, but a range of possibilities that will unfold based on what happens between now and then. Even still, it’s important that we as a society have a clear vision of what we want childcare to look like, so we can ensure this monumental federal investment moves us in the right direction, holding policymakers accountable.
For us, we aspire for a future where all families have access to childcare that meets their needs, with early childcare workers who are paid more than a basic living wage. We imagine a future where childcare centres have access to vibrant green spaces so learning can happen in nature (with the added bonus of limiting illness spread). We also hope for a future where there are more flexible options, so that family time isn’t restricted to weekends, especially since it seems work is no longer restricted to weekdays.